About us

In the GCI, we examine precursors of, and variance in, both expected and unexpected international risk. Expected risk includes corruption and supply chain disruption when entering emerging markets. It even includes evolving geopolitical competition and contestation between for instance China and the United States. Unexpected risk can emerge and impact over time or virtually over-night. Whilst initially unexpected, and still unpredictable, companies have had several years to plan and prepare for the risks associated with Brexit. Artificial intelligence and machine learning are changing the organizational security landscape and preventing global cyber-attacks but equally can unexpectedly and quickly pose a threat to cybersecurity when in the hands of hackers or hostile governments. Black Swan events – unexpected and improbable happenings that develop swiftly and have cataclysmic impact - such as a terrorist attack or a global pandemic like COVID-19, escalate risk immediately and substantially.  

International risk management is now a science, driven by big data and sophisticated analytics and algorithms. Consequently, firms are better able to prepare for or even preempt financial, operational, or compliance risk. However, (geo)political risk remains more challenging. The often unpredictable and hard to measure nature of political risk makes it difficult to anticipate and manage. For managers, financial, operational, and other forms of risk can also arise unexpectedly and have a significant impact on business structure and strategy. But how do you manage the risk to your organization and assets associated with sudden regime change, an unexpected policy shift by government, or the political instability caused by civil unrest? Consequently, setting aside extractive industries and other sectors prone to frequent political intervention, firms typically deal with political risk in a tactical and defensive mode, if at all.  

At the same time, the organizational environment itself can generate risks in the application of its operations and working practices that can affect not only its workforce but also communities, society, and the world. With changing socioeconomic and geopolitical circumstances, it is important that organizations adopt a long-term strategic perspective to respond to ongoing and emerging risks and opportunities while effectively managing workforces, business operations and supply chains. Consequently, at the GCI, we advocate evidence based, data-driven decision-making to drive organizational strategy, actions, and sustainable development. For instance, GCI researchers are investigating the suitability of artificial intelligence and operations research methods and techniques - such as stochastic programming, constraint programming, and dynamic programming - as a potential platform for expressing complex trade-offs inherent in risk management problems, including both international political risk management and intra-organizational risk management. We identify the modelling features that need to be enhanced; introduce new functionalities to the existing mathematical modelling frameworks; and most importantly, apply the developed approaches to decision making in risk management. Our approach includes a multi-stage decision-making modelling of risk management, which takes account of intra-organizational and extra-organizational uncertainties. Through dynamic decision-making techniques, we can take extreme, perhaps even Black Swan, events into consideration, so long as we can define such scenarios. The implications for practice are significant, as stochastic optimization approaches can enable a more consistent and effective approach to risk management. 

Drawing on leading edge scientific research and business and government data and expertise in Ireland, Europe and beyond, the GCI provides impartial information, analysis, and insights that support the development of managerial foresight. This knowledge enables informed decision-making, proactive risk and resilience management, and a frame of reference for the global delivery of strategic objectives. It can allow leaders to put in place sustainable business practices based on a comprehensive perspective, and to see benefits not only in terms of productivity, innovation, and turnover but also individual and organizational wellbeing.  Ultimately, through our research outputs, the GCI aims to improve decision-making under uncertainty in a world of big data and support organizations and leaders that strive to create and take control of the future.